Music · resolved market
Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5810fd33d08222bf26ce832566d84d16ce392e13fd827c067b6161999fcc0cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 61c | 2,129$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked No | 33c | 1,378$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed Yes | 80c | 1,330$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 66c | 1,134$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.76 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…2cabbacked No | 56c | 899$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…4d8dbacked Yes | 44c | 899$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…c78cbacked No | 57c | 899$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…8f42backed Yes | 43c | 899$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c7…9e3bbacked Yes | 59c | 882.75$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 58c | 695.5$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 43c | 678.98$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.23 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 613.17$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.45 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 42c | 476.15$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Yes | 58c | 375.5$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be7…3956backed Yes | 59c | 316.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…e4cfbacked Yes | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…2f56backed Yes | 79c | 143$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 135.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 11c | 124.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…c70bbacked Yes | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 57c | 110.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…784bbacked No | 21c | 110$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb582…c3b6backed No | 42c | 100.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.41per pick | 56cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 59c | 92.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…8bcebacked No | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 14c | 77.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…81d1backed Yes | 80c | 62.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…68d3backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…1569backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…88bcbacked Yes | 80c | 59.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…a020backed Yes | 80c | 47.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…a7b6backed No | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…d628backed Yes | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 44.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e13…cb4cbacked Yes | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…2693backed No | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…4325backed Yes | 76c | 37.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…aee4backed Yes | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…3875backed No | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…ee8abacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…5535backed No | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…9ba6backed Yes | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…577bbacked No | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6af8backed Yes | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…9e4ebacked No | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…bd87backed Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…7934backed No | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…3dbebacked Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…0364backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3584…7271backed Yes | 76c | 23.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fd1bbacked Yes | 74c | 21.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…4de3backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…afbfbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…dbf7backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…a09bbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c0…e7c5backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…4504backed Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae9…e9c6backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?this page
- Will Dua Lipa be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?Yes won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will The Weekend be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
- Will someone else be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.