Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5bb5fbb7bf64d4c44d3ba8d9cc86eb6d70a3c1b2bd74b2f5cff687c852869a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 46c | 2,985$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.67 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 14c | 2,295$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.73 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…a5c3backed Yes | 33c | 1,681$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 65c | 1,643$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…3d8abacked Yes | 51c | 1,545$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6af4backed Yes | 76c | 1,540$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 1,410$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 56c | 973.76$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 18c | 931.49$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 28c | 905.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 76c | 887.73$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 76c | 868.89$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed No | 57c | 833.9$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 29c | 781.33$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 18c | 762.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 24c | 717.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 60c | 696.06$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 62c | 599.4$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 7c | 560.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 36c | 559.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 37c | 547.81$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked No | 80c | 539.82$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 70c | 529.38$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 66c | 456.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…3390backed Yes | 68c | 383.77$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 48c | 381.13$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 39c | 378.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed No | 28c | 350$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 79c | 324.7$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked No | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 56c | 299.79$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…0230backed Yes | 42c | 285.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 34c | 282.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 32c | 258.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 24c | 245$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 32c | 213.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…4198backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…f4adbacked Yes | 64c | 180.59$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 64c | 178.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 30c | 164$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc725…34e7backed Yes | 31c | 129.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 22c | 126.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…1f3fbacked Yes | 75c | 97.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 64c | 94.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 23c | 84.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 29c | 82.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 71c | 79.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…714dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 39c | 69.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 24c | 68.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…fb91backed Yes | 58c | 63.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 22c | 60.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…eaa7backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 64c | 49.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e67…d472backed Yes | 48c | 42.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +387.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…de78backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes | 57c | 38.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 71c | 37.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…410bbacked Yes | 37c | 36.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…0fcabacked Yes | 33c | 31.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…64cfbacked Yes | 60c | 31.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e1…2c3abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…e932backed No | 69c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…f509backed Yes | 44c | 22.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championshipthis page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Game 7 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.