Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b2ef892285b4f7644ff3b327ee3bbfe6fd97e59a4750603df6ba60c4bc2f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 9,773$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 1c | 9,428$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 4,877$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,465$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 3c | 3,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,795$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,532$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 8c | 2,326$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…3d8abacked Yes | 12c | 1,633$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 9c | 1,455$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed Yes | 5c | 1,444$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 10c | 1,409$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…ab47backed Yes | 12c | 1,210$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 16c | 1,158$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 9c | 1,110$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 11c | 1,082$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101a…3a32backed Yes | 11c | 1,020$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…f83bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 10c | 960$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 5c | 817.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…4c9fbacked Yes | 2c | 780.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 9c | 768.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…6be1backed Yes | 10c | 708.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 3c | 622.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 10c | 534.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 7c | 528.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7626…d258backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…a5c3backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 6c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 335.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes | 4c | 333.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f344backed Yes | 7c | 288.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 9c | 284.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 11c | 270.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 11c | 245.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 13c | 202.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…7dc6backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…976abacked Yes | 15c | 196.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 14c | 188.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ab…9500backed Yes | 10c | 179$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2c…e158backed Yes | 14c | 178.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…9cd2backed Yes | 8c | 137.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…692abacked Yes | 24c | 122.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…c06abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 38c | 28.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Game 7 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess ChampionshipNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.