NFL · resolved market
Will Saquon Barkley rush for 2,000 yards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8444097d611b24ad7f70e6335c53f03a14f0c39c1e9e58040eca36664886e25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 27c | 4,911$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.3 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 74c | 4,470$3,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.66 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.8 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 71c | 1,345$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 69c | 1,153$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 6c | 613.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 73c | 575.04$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…9f9fbacked Yes | 68c | 510.36$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 502.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed No | 23c | 354.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 27c | 350.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 76c | 349.52$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 18c | 302.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 75c | 274.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 25c | 218.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…55d4backed No | 26c | 189.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 28c | 174.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 140.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d597backed No | 20c | 120.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 23c | 115.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 74c | 111.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 21c | 103.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked No | 31c | 99.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 14c | 95.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…26e8backed Yes | 72c | 77.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe603…94b4backed Yes | 69c | 67.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…f3e6backed Yes | 77c | 52.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041e…aa12backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…e5c1backed No | 30c | 48.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 25c | 46.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…bc94backed Yes | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.