NFL · resolved market
Will Saquon Barkley win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ceb6583eb78ad1cb040ed5df30ca3a79db9bf62c3a85fc9494afcd15cb86ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 79c | 2,419$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.62 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 1,412$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.42 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 1,172$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1290…5269backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 21c | 970.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked No | 12c | 850$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 76c | 776$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.35 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 647.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 25c | 580$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 3c | 448.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 78c | 368.33$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 7c | 351.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…96dcbacked Yes | 78c | 179.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 65c | 115.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 14c | 110.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 25c | 107.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Yes | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 23c | 86.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 68c | 50.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…99b8backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434b…b944backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saquon Barkley win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?this page
- Will Derrick Henry win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Ja’Marr Chase win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Josh Allen win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Justin Jefferson win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Lamar Jackson win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.