NFL · resolved market
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce0b7a342a81e825fa7d1d261dfdb6c0ac73e74feb5ed6cf9a0a733330f5633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1290…5269backed Yes | 3c | 16,734$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 4c | 13,579$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc0…8c78backed Yes | 2c | 4,877$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,074$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,173$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 3c | 992.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 719.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…faeebacked Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…320fbacked Yes | 5c | 517.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lamar Jackson win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?this page
- Will Derrick Henry win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Ja’Marr Chase win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Josh Allen win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Justin Jefferson win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.