Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f20a2edba626257bee1d3a56e86e5b4f9f08f578bd287459af5b83aee7b8c4

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	6,190$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.57	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b51…866ebacked Yes	15c	3,797$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.71	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes	14c	2,741$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.08	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes	12c	2,650$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.02	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes	10c	2,577$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.32	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes	10c	1,681$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.42	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e57…53b3backed Yes	12c	1,592$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.1	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ae…2ff5backed Yes	1c	1,271$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbadd…7518backed Yes	14c	730.36$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.62	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a93…d39cbacked Yes	27c	701.1$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes	14c	694.16$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf20…1881backed Yes	2c	663.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	113	29.2%33 W · 80 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed Yes	8c	566.14$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	95	63.2%60 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	14c	539.29$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.82	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	9c	447.31$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.2	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	419.84$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	79c	368.24$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.83	722	47.2%341 W · 381 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	9c	319.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.03	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…131bbacked Yes	19c	299.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No	79c	293.53$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.85	106	67%71 W · 35 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes	15c	286.46$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.97	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	12c	280.55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	11c	274.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb36…a357backed Yes	19c	262.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	20c	259.14$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked Yes	13c	237.35$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	132	51.5%68 W · 64 L	+8.5wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3767…1fbfbacked Yes	22c	237.32$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	13c	214.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Yes	10c	205.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.17per pick	36cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No	76c	180.03$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.64	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	8c	171.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	11c	154.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c9…232cbacked Yes	11c	140.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	14c	137.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe610…60b9backed Yes	10c	130$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.23per pick	31cpaid	+88.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2882…c53dbacked Yes	12c	123.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8118…8c36backed Yes	23c	109.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.7wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	17c	108.12$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be2…82fabacked Yes	15c	100.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ff…879cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	13c	82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	226	23.5%53 W · 173 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2a…2606backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes	16c	72.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed No	77c	39.06$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.07	253	28.1%71 W · 182 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2d…2be7backed No	78c	38.4$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.41	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e90…db89backed No	78c	14.87$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event