Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x409bc0d71bbbd7f5568f3a6cd057fb02c118f95dbcb66c2f7a9a7cb5ac019c51

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	9c	6,302$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.03	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	4c	3,784$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.92	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	11c	1,424$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	1c	1,353$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea9…b6b8backed Yes	22c	935.78$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.22	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357c…7dfebacked No	73c	817.6$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.6	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	2c	485.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No	79c	393.53$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.52	106	67%71 W · 35 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	20c	384.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.29	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes	7c	357.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes	16c	277.14$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.61	722	47.2%341 W · 381 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes	30c	250$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	25c	247.43$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.86	218	50%109 W · 109 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb36…a357backed Yes	21c	243.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9d…1e4bbacked Yes	46c	221.8$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.95	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	27c	189.02$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.87	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	17c	163.09$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	17c	156.95$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed Yes	43c	150$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.75	83	56.6%47 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c10…336cbacked Yes	47c	149.79$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.36	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	72c	130.21$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bca…c6dabacked Yes	39c	128$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb9…6a0bbacked Yes	25c	118.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	23c	109.64$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	75c	105.11$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.61	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.9	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8118…8c36backed Yes	26c	94.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.7wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	79c	81.5$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.24	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Yes	63c	79.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	164	37.2%61 W · 103 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4907…d2dcbacked Yes	53c	75.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes	27c	74.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	33c	73$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	56c	70.54$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	15c	67.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed No	74c	66.14$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.95	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	58c	59.07$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.07	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	38c	51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d2c…3ec7backed Yes	40c	50.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	70	50%35 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Yes	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.39	199	39.7%79 W · 120 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.1	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabad…312dbacked Yes	26c	46.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	26c	45.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4e…8e54backed Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	61.5%64 W · 40 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea4…f180backed Yes	50c	39.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No	75c	38.02$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.44	376	44.9%169 W · 207 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes	40c	38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa832…9375backed Yes	54c	36.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No	79c	33.66$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.93	151	58.3%88 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x988a…c110backed Yes	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…eb2abacked No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.19	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cf…a2c0backed Yes	45c	25.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d2d…2be7backed No	80c	25.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.12	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No	74c	22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.72	281	48.4%136 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…5a3dbacked No	60c	17.42$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event