Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2581b82fb51f4a84abee8d08302fc49c6390afcbd708777fd6554fcc07fd2b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $767,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $930,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 27c | 36,361$9,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,522.29 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 61c | 32,061$19,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,422 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 44c | 28,276$12,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,308.31 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 39c | 25,659$10,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,057.62 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 48c | 21,423$10,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,144.04 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed No | 12c | 17,641$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 16c | 13,836$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 32c | 13,030$4,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,208.2 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 16c | 12,856$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,788.84 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 28c | 11,711$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311.11 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 71c | 11,635$8,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339.98 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 67c | 11,161$7,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,708.59 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked No | 35c | 10,736$3,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 17c | 10,026$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,284.11 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 77c | 9,678$7,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 8,109$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.71 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed No | 8c | 8,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…8556backed No | 62c | 6,803$4,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,228.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 48c | 5,595$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed No | 66c | 5,500$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629.99 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 16c | 5,187$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.45 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 46c | 5,165$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.04 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…63b0backed No | 24c | 4,967$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,509$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,013.63 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 15c | 4,358$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,697.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +560.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…1938backed Yes | 62c | 3,560$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…1bf7backed Yes | 66c | 3,500$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 71c | 2,856$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 16c | 2,480$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.13 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 62c | 2,451$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.82 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 61c | 2,272$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.78 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…9e23backed Yes | 77c | 2,180$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,088$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked No | 1c | 2,047$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,974$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.47 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb179…d584backed No | 14c | 1,725$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 55c | 1,709$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.2 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed Yes | 79c | 1,627$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 10c | 1,603$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.52 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 48c | 1,488$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.9 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 63c | 1,461$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 13c | 1,461$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 11cpaid | +355.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked No | 37c | 1,441$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.27 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 75c | 1,374$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 66c | 1,283$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.09 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,264$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.44 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,167$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…0655backed Yes | 33c | 1,146$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed Yes | 48c | 1,138$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 37c | 1,113$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.36 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e0…b6f5backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14e…0ad5backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…54aebacked Yes | 47c | 976.04$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…4d71backed No | 1c | 959.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked No | 22c | 942.77$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked No | 74c | 898.51$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.9 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 77c | 890.79$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b92…c5adbacked No | 11c | 849.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 46c | 840.91$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 32c | 799.95$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.97 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Yes | 54c | 777.78$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 53c | 733.22$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 78c | 720.43$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 24c | 711.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.57 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 40c | 704.69$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.75 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 35c | 700$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.1 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfc…51d8backed Yes | 29c | 699.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 13c | 690.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.65 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 6c | 687.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed No | 51c | 663.19$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 76c | 654.15$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 26c | 627.48$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.21 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed No | 22c | 597.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…a201backed Yes | 27c | 586.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed No | 72c | 571.73$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.69 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 27c | 567$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 38c | 551.49$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.83 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…77b0backed Yes | 34c | 550.29$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 75c | 538.2$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 24c | 529.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.17 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 52c | 517.04$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 20c | 499.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 52c | 494.01$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.26 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 78c | 488.48$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 28c | 486.34$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.42 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 15c | 486.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.21 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 30c | 485.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.79 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 64c | 476.24$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 469.21$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…8d2fbacked No | 24c | 468.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 22c | 462.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.98 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…01dcbacked Yes | 37c | 444.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 13c | 440.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed Yes | 46c | 435.32$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…d48cbacked Yes | 34c | 422.78$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…107cbacked Yes | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.