Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06c2b14714d1aca4061d51d4db44190b95c83210f9c9b97d4c236b6b9a0ed6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,641$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 16,236$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 13,790$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.71 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…1594backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…cc7dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,828$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,449$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.59 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…2d19backed Yes | 0c | 11,054$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…79f5backed Yes | 0c | 8,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,810$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,360$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,953$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 3c | 3,518$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 3,505$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,649$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…7befbacked Yes | 2c | 2,591$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…cb92backed Yes | 1c | 2,543$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…b024backed Yes | 5c | 1,965$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,389$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…66e3backed Yes | 3c | 978.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…6f33backed Yes | 3c | 955$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 2c | 914.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 3c | 800.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 3c | 749.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 665.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 664.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 4c | 633.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4f…23aebacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf26…9970backed Yes | 2c | 422.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…e228backed Yes | 4c | 343$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.