Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7c4951dfcf274144e5aaa40c4022f55b2d62e926c0cbcc6b9b5884a85e04762
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $346,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 8c | 39,487$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.05 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 7c | 23,753$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…f16dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,942$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…78e9backed Yes | 0c | 18,558$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…f4bebacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 13,645$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.34 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 17c | 12,618$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.24 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f41…46d4backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…c165backed Yes | 0c | 10,844$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 6c | 10,085$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.86 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 12c | 7,955$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.36 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,732$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,600$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.28 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,643$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.96 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 11c | 2,283$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…e881backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 1,890$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.45 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,840$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 1,787$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.58 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,375$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 15c | 1,350$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8534…0562backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,224$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 12c | 1,186$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 16c | 1,042$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.78 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 15c | 1,012$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…77b0backed Yes | 13c | 919.9$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 4c | 803.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 8c | 729.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 12c | 701.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 17c | 700$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 16c | 633.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 12c | 498.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 484.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 13c | 447.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 16c | 442.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 11c | 411.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 10c | 381.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 12c | 369$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 11c | 367.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…b402backed Yes | 8c | 355.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 12c | 350$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 17c | 300.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 18c | 292.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 13c | 290.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 7c | 280$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c21…31cbbacked Yes | 8c | 256.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 16c | 233$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…110abacked Yes | 7c | 224.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…d98dbacked Yes | 16c | 217.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 209.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…f530backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…7befbacked Yes | 14c | 190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…b3bdbacked Yes | 8c | 183.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bc…e5b7backed Yes | 12c | 168.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 7c | 166.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 160.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f75…c59ebacked Yes | 16c | 149.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfc…51d8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 14c | 115.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…1475backed Yes | 17c | 114.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…1928backed Yes | 15c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…6378backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…a3ddbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…957dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…5ac5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…eb08backed Yes | 15c | 97.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…7501backed Yes | 11c | 97.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…f624backed Yes | 16c | 94.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…4313backed Yes | 17c | 92.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…0655backed Yes | 16c | 86.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7680…f776backed Yes | 14c | 81.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5378…9729backed Yes | 13c | 79.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…dfc6backed Yes | 18c | 78.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd388…1497backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.