Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f20482542239099d8200e74a5b99bd3237c890eaa68ee3c816fb26c9042cd9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 15c | 39,563$5,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,960.79 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c9…f035backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 18c | 14,313$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.27 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 10c | 13,936$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.4 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 16c | 9,168$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.55 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 12c | 9,143$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.02 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 6,460$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 7c | 4,119$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.86 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 4c | 3,488$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,334$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.53 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,247$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.75 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 8c | 2,977$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.29 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…1bf7backed Yes | 16c | 2,657$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 2,427$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.36 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 15c | 2,398$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.25 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,369$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 18c | 2,274$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,136$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 20c | 1,900$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,842$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,786$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,600$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.53 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 1,442$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.81 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 6c | 1,440$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 15c | 1,367$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.52 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…e93dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,329$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 16c | 1,317$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 16c | 1,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed Yes | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…77a8backed Yes | 17c | 1,172$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 18c | 1,142$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 20c | 988.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 2c | 966.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 15c | 888$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…7ec3backed Yes | 10c | 873.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 2c | 870.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 10c | 860$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 12c | 830$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 13c | 806.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 799.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 795.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 13c | 738.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…e881backed Yes | 14c | 717$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed No | 77c | 699.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 20c | 610$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 21c | 585.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 16c | 579.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 19c | 524.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…6526backed Yes | 19c | 520.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 17c | 508.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 28c | 462$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 7c | 460$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 8c | 391.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 14c | 388.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 15c | 368.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…0655backed Yes | 20c | 367.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 360$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 15c | 353.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 9c | 346.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 13c | 331$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 77c | 300$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 18c | 295.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 292$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 26c | 286.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…4265backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 24c | 255.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 23c | 249.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…01dcbacked Yes | 21c | 248$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 14c | 241.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…811dbacked Yes | 16c | 239.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes | 11c | 235$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 26c | 231.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…a08ebacked Yes | 7c | 215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…2a61backed Yes | 15c | 212.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 14c | 207.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…b041backed Yes | 7c | 203.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 12c | 202.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…667ebacked Yes | 8c | 193.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 23c | 179.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f75…c59ebacked Yes | 18c | 176.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…e3f9backed Yes | 23c | 173$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…2692backed Yes | 9c | 163.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.