Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f43f30e1f111546989c1c557130de87022b230b91dbb0c4628e74af41023a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $411,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2b…c165backed Yes | 0c | 48,436$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…b274backed Yes | 0c | 47,990$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…78e9backed Yes | 0c | 28,336$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…0e1abacked Yes | 0c | 26,623$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 3c | 16,919$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 13,274$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.06 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 11c | 11,530$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.68 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 14c | 11,485$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,034$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 7c | 8,369$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.64 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 7,580$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…d7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,754$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 5c | 4,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 3,402$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,268$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.54 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…49e7backed Yes | 7c | 3,097$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8534…0562backed Yes | 4c | 2,803$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 9c | 2,383$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 14c | 1,750$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 1,609$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.02 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…9e23backed Yes | 1c | 1,594$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,507$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 7c | 1,364$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,245$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 10c | 1,054$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…8556backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 12c | 798.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…bb98backed Yes | 11c | 793.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 4c | 764.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 13c | 705.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 12c | 699.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 16c | 672.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 12c | 660.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 599.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 6c | 597.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 12c | 592.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 18c | 563.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 496.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…77b0backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 9c | 377.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 13c | 345.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f75…c59ebacked Yes | 12c | 333.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 333.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 13c | 321.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…7a68backed Yes | 13c | 310.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f41…7582backed Yes | 3c | 302.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 15c | 290.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 239.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 14c | 225$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 15c | 225$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 10c | 209.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 15c | 194$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…957dbacked Yes | 16c | 193.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5378…9729backed Yes | 8c | 190.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…667ebacked Yes | 14c | 183.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 14c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 12c | 172.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a1…7a73backed Yes | 19c | 166.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…360cbacked Yes | 14c | 157.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…4328backed Yes | 13c | 153.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…f199backed Yes | 10c | 149.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 12c | 142.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfc…51d8backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 10c | 132.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 16c | 126.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…5ef4backed Yes | 11c | 122.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…77a8backed Yes | 9c | 118.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 14c | 116.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…f567backed Yes | 13c | 111.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 9c | 111.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 12c | 110.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…7befbacked Yes | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…ffb0backed Yes | 12c | 104.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26b…e2d4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…f624backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c43…cbaebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…eb08backed Yes | 15c | 98.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.