Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23acbac4dadc9a4ad88976f5bd27d916547b0253f9a7ae77a3f1ee00704a153a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 0c | 26,283$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…9f67backed Yes | 0c | 20,518$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,544$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.29 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,328$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 2,189$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 3c | 2,070$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 24c | 2,027$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.23 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,571$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 10c | 1,178$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 10c | 715.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 706.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…eb05backed Yes | 10c | 581.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 32c | 538.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 16c | 429.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 76c | 269.46$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 27c | 244.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…79e8backed Yes | 28c | 212.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af5…29c2backed No | 75c | 205.61$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 200.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…0c91backed Yes | 29c | 163$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…c70cbacked Yes | 33c | 153.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 17c | 149.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed Yes | 31c | 121.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…0dc5backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…b51cbacked Yes | 45c | 82.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 15c | 75.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 80c | 73.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99b…45dabacked Yes | 30c | 66.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 71c | 50.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…21b3backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 71c | 36.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 71c | 27.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b5d0backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…770cbacked Yes | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…321abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0992…2a08backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 28-30 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 37-39 executive orders in his first week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.