Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b950c08a2155617b0065eb927825207323d20373f8e4daccd1ec914487f9a36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe972…b1dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 20c | 961.85$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 20c | 599.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 65c | 591.96$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 55c | 472.39$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.58 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 37c | 347.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 10c | 340.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 50c | 221.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…b2bebacked Yes | 48c | 210.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 47c | 180.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…a114backed Yes | 57c | 168.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 44c | 115.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 28c | 84.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…9ce4backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb319…c5bbbacked Yes | 47c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 62c | 67.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 61c | 65.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…2970backed No | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab0…5a7ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…8476backed Yes | 46c | 49.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c93…3e14backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…025cbacked Yes | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…0afabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe837…739fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…8ef3backed No | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…b8cabacked No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…dc1dbacked No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…9c98backed Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 44c | 33.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…4d33backed No | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…e3b6backed Yes | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…ce60backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…bc08backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…d514backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…8b50backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…e991backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…9c71backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…53ffbacked Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…4d26backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…d0e6backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273b…331cbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…261bbacked No | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…ff09backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…a967backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…ac0ebacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…6626backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…13d6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…034ebacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…f086backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…bbb1backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe319…a4c6backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…5050backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…78e5backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…ea18backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…50f2backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 28-30 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 37-39 executive orders in his first week?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.