Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue 37-39 executive orders in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe024fa535188b03ce9f0724e7f27b7e16a1d120745cd63494727385691cd4de2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa715…9f67backed No | 2c | 4,380$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,035$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.84 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 24c | 798.88$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.37 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 55c | 613.56$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 35c | 612.41$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.91 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 77c | 591.42$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.38 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 5c | 277.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 75c | 275.28$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 61c | 250$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 202$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 69c | 193.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 172.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…1eabbacked Yes | 46c | 141.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 34c | 139.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 51c | 127.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0992…2a08backed No | 76c | 125$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 25c | 122.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 22c | 112.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…c70cbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…0afabacked Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 55c | 63.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed Yes | 37c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked No | 76c | 32.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…ee94backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b5d0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 71c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff31…5166backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c9…4596backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…0d85backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue 37-39 executive orders in his first week?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 28-30 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 31-33 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.