World Politics · resolved market
Will Yoon leave South Korea before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0fc124b53f32226015c4bdd2bcc0a550df8e3c584c81226100b3e8f5cbe63d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf01e…f334backed Yes | 4c | 9,198$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,324$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…16fbbacked Yes | 4c | 6,173$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 4c | 5,006$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 4,317$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 4c | 2,981$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,665$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…844ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,024$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 4c | 1,109$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 2c | 927.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed Yes | 5c | 921.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…df9ebacked Yes | 4c | 562.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed75…7659backed Yes | 3c | 526.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…1bc4backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d71…8ce9backed Yes | 3c | 338.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8b…7890backed Yes | 3c | 312.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.