Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6837fb20ba39a81cf273970a3766a38306a6d819168a4a05a3c37128b4776e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $713,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $770,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $713,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 67c | 52,309$34,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,318.91 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 74c | 44,393$32,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,537.75 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 22c | 41,119$9,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,153.17 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 15c | 31,313$4,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,637.58 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 79c | 27,288$21,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,749.58 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 79c | 21,000$16,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,446.65 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 27c | 20,790$5,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,711.8 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 68c | 20,000$13,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,460.66 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 79c | 17,543$13,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.99 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 80c | 14,183$11,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,873.29 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 15c | 13,575$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.36 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 20c | 12,750$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.56 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 74c | 12,177$8,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,181.45 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 8c | 12,148$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.75 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 26c | 11,630$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.46 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 21c | 11,297$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…301ebacked Yes | 79c | 8,313$6,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 75c | 7,268$5,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 28c | 6,959$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.22 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 69c | 6,533$4,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 18c | 6,408$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 25c | 6,107$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.27 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…e25abacked Yes | 67c | 6,091$4,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe837…739fbacked No | 21c | 5,962$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 21c | 5,913$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.66 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 21c | 5,219$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.49 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked No | 7c | 4,596$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 18c | 4,410$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.34 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 30c | 4,338$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.27 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 22c | 3,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 79c | 3,474$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.65 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 29c | 3,084$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.82 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 79c | 2,913$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.05 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 2,605$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.8 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 20c | 2,604$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.78 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 20c | 2,518$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 23c | 2,454$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 22c | 2,291$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 37c | 2,275$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.44 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…8d14backed No | 24c | 2,200$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 21c | 2,048$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.84 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 19c | 2,000$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ac…5a76backed Yes | 74c | 1,974$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,889$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 67c | 1,812$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.61 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 20c | 1,726$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.66 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 19c | 1,693$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…279fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,691$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 24c | 1,561$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b26…2211backed Yes | 67c | 1,488$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked No | 24c | 1,384$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 73c | 1,364$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.09 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…8f54backed No | 21c | 1,302$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,234$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.16 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 8c | 1,223$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 19c | 1,207$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…3d11backed No | 20c | 1,200$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 34c | 1,188$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 27c | 1,159$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.9 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 80c | 1,104$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.26 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 25c | 1,091$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 80c | 1,051$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.35 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 75c | 1,036$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.28 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 79c | 966.81$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 24c | 953.56$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 79c | 900$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 22c | 854.76$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 8c | 850$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 846.06$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.86 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed No | 20c | 843.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed Yes | 78c | 834.98$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eed…0c9abacked Yes | 80c | 806.41$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 23c | 799.95$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 23c | 777$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 17c | 761$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes | 67c | 748.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc748…4a47backed Yes | 68c | 732.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 715.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed No | 30c | 659.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 18c | 658.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 77c | 653.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…e2d6backed Yes | 80c | 640$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked No | 18c | 638.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…17abbacked Yes | 79c | 629.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…7049backed Yes | 79c | 611.13$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 27c | 572.89$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc08a…3511backed No | 20c | 531.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…4797backed Yes | 71c | 530.56$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0172backed Yes | 79c | 530.09$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…623abacked Yes | 67c | 520.74$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 76c | 518.68$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…e7a2backed Yes | 78c | 501.15$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed No | 18c | 500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…fce0backed No | 27c | 499.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…0e24backed No | 19c | 496$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…51e2backed Yes | 66c | 494.6$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?this page
- Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Brian Blase be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Eric Hargan be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Joe Grogan be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Paul Mango be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.