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Us Politics · resolved market

Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$713,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$770,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $713,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes67c52,309$34,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,318.9111541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes74c44,393$32,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,537.7517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No22c41,119$9,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,153.173132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No15c31,313$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.583930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes79c27,288$21,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,749.5837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes79c21,000$16,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,446.6523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No27c20,790$5,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,711.87227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes68c20,000$13,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,460.662339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes79c17,543$13,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,696.9916943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes80c14,183$11,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.2999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No15c13,575$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.3611848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No20c12,750$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.5612630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes74c12,177$8,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,181.456051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No8c12,148$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.754814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No26c11,630$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.464216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No21c11,297$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92a1…301ebacked Yes79c8,313$6,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+92.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes75c7,268$5,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.995437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No28c6,959$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.228219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes69c6,533$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.982343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No18c6,408$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.482429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No25c6,107$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.277146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x20ca…e25abacked Yes67c6,091$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.03366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe837…739fbacked No21c5,962$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.621216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No21c5,913$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.666442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No21c5,219$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.497041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes75c5,000$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2673033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked No7c4,596$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.23137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No18c4,410$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.343859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No30c4,338$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.271244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed No22c3,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.972240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes79c3,474$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.655928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No29c3,084$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.829746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x305c…dc57backed Yes75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes79c2,913$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.054259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c2,605$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No20c2,604$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.784052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No20c2,518$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No23c2,454$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.352245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked No22c2,291$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.253033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed No37c2,275$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.443212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97b…8d14backed No24c2,200$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No21c2,048$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.8410632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No19c2,000$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.222524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes68c2,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6502520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ac…5a76backed Yes74c1,974$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes79c1,889$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.17955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes67c1,812$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.6117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No20c1,726$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.665135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No19c1,693$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.316432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a3…279fbacked Yes79c1,691$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No24c1,561$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.485644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b26…2211backed Yes67c1,488$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…8e3bbacked No24c1,384$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes73c1,364$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.0912531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xace3…8f54backed No21c1,302$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes67c1,234$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.1641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No8c1,223$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.762842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No19c1,207$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.876251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x979e…3d11backed No20c1,200$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed No34c1,188$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.833732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No27c1,159$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.93435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes80c1,104$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2615238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked No25c1,091$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-61.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes80c1,051$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3517544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes75c1,036$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.031838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes79c966.81$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.064100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+179.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked No24c953.56$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.882133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes79c900$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19213673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No22c854.76$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.416838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No8c850$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No36c846.06$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8632029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed No20c843.03$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…28e5backed Yes78c834.98$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.11758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+122.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eed…0c9abacked Yes80c806.41$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No23c799.95$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No23c777$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.68640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No17c761$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8413029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes67c748.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc748…4a47backed Yes68c732.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No20c715.18$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.261,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed No30c659.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No18c658.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4317021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes77c653.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb16e…e2d6backed Yes80c640$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x25d7…c2bfbacked No18c638.05$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.88933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+43.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d3…17abbacked Yes79c629.72$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.72683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c51…7049backed Yes79c611.13$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.143100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No27c572.89$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4630319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc08a…3511backed No20c531.09$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa848…4797backed Yes71c530.56$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc088…0172backed Yes79c530.09$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+123.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x244a…623abacked Yes67c520.74$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+113.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes76c518.68$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0818033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5061…e7a2backed Yes78c501.15$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f7e…8a48backed No18c500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x691b…fce0backed No27c499.9$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.97825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x058b…0e24backed No19c496$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.221020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf398…51e2backed Yes66c494.6$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.