Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702ad5b4eada1d8797af98a9b22124dc8578587f2a48d857febff56fcdeba7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 4c | 35,668$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.83 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 7,063$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.12 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 4,320$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.59 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…d053backed Yes | 6c | 3,954$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 3,378$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.42 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,376$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.45 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,071$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 9c | 1,247$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 5c | 998.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 9c | 718.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…0e24backed Yes | 11c | 480$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 450.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 11c | 262$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 10c | 255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…b456backed Yes | 8c | 187.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 9c | 125.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary?this page
- Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Brian Blase be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Eric Hargan be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Joe Grogan be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Paul Mango be Trump's HHS Secretary?No won
- Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.