Us Politics · resolved market
Will the first House vote on CR funding bill pass?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678913fdba49c570ba52b508f5dafd759139ac8f6c8161814bcaa6b9bccff94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 2c | 9,361$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 3c | 3,250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 13c | 907.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 20c | 544.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 481.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 478.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 40c | 385.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.39 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 62c | 333$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 250.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.53 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 63c | 193.27$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 156$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 13c | 155.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…9b84backed No | 34c | 135.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…7d5dbacked Yes | 67c | 134.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 62c | 118.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 68c | 118.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…27c8backed Yes | 67c | 103.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…1561backed No | 34c | 103.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…4081backed Yes | 61c | 82.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…2cdbbacked No | 38c | 69.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…f8e7backed No | 38c | 59.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…75f2backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…defdbacked No | 35c | 58.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb304…8f76backed Yes | 62c | 58.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 68c | 54.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1135…964fbacked Yes | 61c | 54.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…10fabacked No | 39c | 52.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…0251backed No | 38c | 50.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e1…1b80backed Yes | 62c | 48.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…78cdbacked No | 39c | 45.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 54c | 44.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…050dbacked No | 38c | 41.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…31f1backed Yes | 61c | 40.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…c1ecbacked Yes | 62c | 39.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…df44backed Yes | 62c | 38.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe057…692fbacked No | 39c | 36.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8399…d46fbacked Yes | 61c | 35.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 77c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…ec8bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…3f64backed No | 38c | 32.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08e…6ad2backed Yes | 62c | 30.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…f196backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd919…6ea5backed Yes | 62c | 28.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…edbebacked Yes | 62c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6b46backed Yes | 62c | 21.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…2396backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…8fe1backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…9aaebacked Yes | 61c | 16.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5800…9391backed Yes | 62c | 16.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.