Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d43be9e1a7acef10204ab4ee45840560d965c28f3d60b41939d377c3ebc8fd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf218…98babacked No | 12c | 52,423$6,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,060.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 17,485$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 0c | 11,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed Yes | 79c | 10,819$8,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 76c | 6,119$4,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.16 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 16c | 5,522$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.27 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 71c | 3,953$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.18 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 61c | 2,655$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.36 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 75c | 2,223$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2091backed No | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked No | 14c | 1,713$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 4c | 1,551$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 4c | 1,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 2c | 1,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 1c | 1,208$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed No | 6c | 1,019$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 80c | 1,004$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 18c | 983.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 23c | 850.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 9c | 693.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 68c | 683.24$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.12 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…9077backed No | 37c | 640$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked No | 13c | 547.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 11c | 546$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 8c | 526.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 67c | 515$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed No | 33c | 502.33$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 59c | 501.02$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 62c | 500$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 38c | 486.95$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked No | 25c | 475$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 20c | 441$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 31c | 344.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 58c | 313.92$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.85 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked No | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 15c | 281.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 11c | 252$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 8c | 227.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd4…8853backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 6c | 184.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…ad84backed Yes | 75c | 183.72$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…5344backed Yes | 69c | 147.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 75c | 136.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 16c | 133.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…7918backed Yes | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…d1fdbacked No | 36c | 64.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…62b1backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…3323backed No | 39c | 55.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…fa14backed No | 35c | 52.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked No | 38c | 42.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d80…26f5backed Yes | 80c | 37.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e8aabacked Yes | 75c | 31.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…bec1backed Yes | 70c | 23.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2500…282dbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.