TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

DeepSeek banned in US before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$402,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$461,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefb5…dda1backed Yes7c10,250$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes8c6,058$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes18c5,983$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes10c5,951$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes9c5,634$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes4c5,366$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.28166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c4,747$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.49821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes7c4,011$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c3,950$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.622913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed Yes7c3,781$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.81475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+95.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes9c3,700$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3481051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf70…d4a0backed Yes15c3,659$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes5c3,500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c3,096$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.246011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3623…dcf9backed Yes16c3,077$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes10c3,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d20…1ab0backed Yes6c3,000$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes10c2,965$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.072512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes18c2,898$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.17837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes5c2,833$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a5…d8d4backed Yes14c2,814$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a3…007ebacked Yes11c2,748$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes7c2,653$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.174641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d4c…51fdbacked Yes19c2,652$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No76c2,540$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…5ad1backed Yes12c2,487$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x771a…096fbacked Yes8c2,252$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.51612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes14c2,173$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccc…ce3dbacked Yes24c2,067$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x955f…5e5abacked Yes10c2,036$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…51b7backed Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+295.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f7…590bbacked Yes16c1,969$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d6…496ebacked Yes16c1,957$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2208…2115backed Yes2c1,912$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,706$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.925813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x869a…bb9cbacked Yes1c1,703$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8460…63e3backed Yes6c1,686$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c1,642$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.811030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes9c1,612$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c1,571$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x029e…e4e8backed Yes7c1,473$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8011…0c4dbacked Yes20c1,462$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,419$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes13c1,348$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.113920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c1,224$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.863010%3 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc17…594dbacked Yes11c1,155$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda19…241fbacked Yes17c1,002$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d61…f6febacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf240…03c2backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb78b…5d40backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa181…9456backed Yes12c965.61$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe75a…dc72backed Yes5c964.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa682…51edbacked Yes4c951.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes21c923.53$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.27837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0151…039fbacked Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1714…0986backed Yes14c876.23$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…b133backed Yes18c811.17$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes17c810.73$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe627…baacbacked Yes7c782.53$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…f771backed Yes13c780$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes10c774.61$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.461127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7fb…3108backed Yes14c761.14$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes15c761$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.651540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02cd…a7febacked Yes14c718$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca25…dbecbacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes13c707.46$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.971816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e38…5533backed Yes12c699.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No79c692.95$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.913933.3%13 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c4…4ebdbacked Yes22c678.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ea…fa11backed Yes38c662.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb406…ebaabacked Yes12c662.08$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87e9…67c6backed Yes16c654.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1766…5705backed Yes15c645.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb558…3d55backed Yes14c645.21$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Yes11c600$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9948…2ff7backed Yes4c600$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b29…a45fbacked Yes20c590.8$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55b…7853backed Yes17c587.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedef…2919backed Yes9c538.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061e…8b82backed Yes19c538.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda67…f088backed Yes14c535.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a2…7bb3backed Yes4c506.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-83.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes11c499.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd9…d442backed Yes9c495$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes3c486.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes21c468.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5420…a717backed Yes15c450.33$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e13…d4adbacked Yes17c446.41$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3e…ac1cbacked Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0039…b102backed Yes9c423.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c377.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.04695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.