Champions League · resolved market
Will Atlético Madrid win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98e20a78cf8092afd75716e11fceeda3b38a10dc3c263c048e2acde09f0bd3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 6c | 5,434$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.94 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 6c | 4,199$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.3 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,530$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 39c | 2,407$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.81 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…5aa6backed No | 66c | 1,519$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 7c | 1,412$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 6c | 1,154$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 7c | 1,105$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 4c | 654.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 33c | 644.89$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 490.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 487.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 472$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…c9b7backed Yes | 5c | 466.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 7c | 394.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 74c | 244.46$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed No | 63c | 231.14$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 9c | 185$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 61c | 143$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 40c | 73.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 63c | 55.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc478…65ecbacked Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlético Madrid win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.