Champions League · resolved market
Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba23961a26410edb793360345a9e4d3ba66de548a18cd8962690978297794899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 52c | 15,628$8,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,559.41 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 46c | 3,423$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.43 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,243$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.48 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…8586backed Yes | 47c | 2,904$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 53c | 2,457$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 51c | 2,134$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.6 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,058$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…43febacked Yes | 57c | 1,766$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.04 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,765$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,642$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 44c | 1,600$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.2 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb686…9130backed Yes | 6c | 1,514$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 46c | 1,361$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.85 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 71c | 1,226$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.01 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 51c | 1,114$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,109$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 48c | 1,020$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.82 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.29 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked Yes | 54c | 700.37$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 45c | 566.23$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.66 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 54c | 511$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.82 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 54c | 415.97$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…601abacked No | 75c | 377.39$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 19c | 376.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed No | 54c | 350$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9850…9062backed Yes | 4c | 259.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 47c | 247$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 74c | 209.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 48c | 207$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 25c | 178.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 26c | 170.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 63c | 125$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 46c | 115$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 28c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…ebb1backed Yes | 47c | 105.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…529fbacked Yes | 51c | 100.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…68c5backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…baffbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 57c | 96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Yes | 55c | 91.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 56c | 90.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x573a…2f21backed Yes | 43c | 78.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 43c | 74.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacf…e9afbacked Yes | 44c | 74.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 58c | 70.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 49c | 66.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…80c1backed Yes | 46c | 64.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 58c | 53.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 49c | 52.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad93…5ecdbacked Yes | 29c | 51.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…0f36backed Yes | 49c | 50.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…6a30backed Yes | 46c | 43.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…d8cebacked Yes | 46c | 43.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…3b47backed Yes | 29c | 41.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…ccc6backed Yes | 49c | 40.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 49c | 40.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…277ebacked Yes | 30c | 39.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed No | 75c | 34.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…0095backed Yes | 46c | 32.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ce…da52backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…1d68backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…07cbbacked Yes | 51c | 28.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 48c | 28.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…a018backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…1b0fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Atlético Madrid win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.