Movies · resolved market
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Brutalist"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f4b736ddff70a6fec27f1e3bff4f78359f01c83233bde0929a03a62bf84243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 57c | 1,931$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.08 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 56c | 1,653$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.4 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,528$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.1 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 38c | 1,353$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.51 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 44c | 1,265$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.72 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 44c | 1,173$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.12 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 58c | 1,170$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.94 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 62c | 1,110$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.8 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 59c | 939.9$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 61c | 873.71$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 856.56$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.91 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 42c | 826.61$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.42 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 41c | 769.32$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 55c | 537.3$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.07 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 65c | 519.85$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.94 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 63c | 485$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.3 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 46c | 434.18$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 55c | 374.78$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…f2c2backed Yes | 66c | 371.64$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 57c | 320$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 42c | 270$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 65c | 234.59$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +171%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 43c | 226.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 59c | 222$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…e59cbacked Yes | 60c | 221.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 221$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 56c | 207.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 194.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…73d8backed No | 40c | 193$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 188.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 39c | 184.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 56c | 179.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…e31cbacked No | 40c | 171$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…86a2backed Yes | 60c | 168$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…eaaebacked No | 40c | 148$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Yes | 68c | 147.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed Yes | 59c | 144$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 56c | 136.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…0cb9backed Yes | 60c | 133$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…f4abbacked Yes | 60c | 100.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 58c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 60c | 92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb16…4ab5backed Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…bea8backed No | 49c | 76.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…f4c6backed No | 39c | 74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f45backed Yes | 59c | 63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…77c7backed Yes | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe614…fab4backed Yes | 58c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dae…eed9backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 56c | 59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…d9adbacked Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96af…2cecbacked No | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 40.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…9cfabacked Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…4a49backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Brutalist"?this page
- Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Sing Sing"?No won
- Will Daniel Craig win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Queer"?No won
- Will Ralph Fiennes win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Conclave"?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Complete Unknown"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.