Champions League · resolved market
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8a149dd9f0fc2c4f22b1c801b6fe2812f71f4c8c1aac3db9e7348a591b1801c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf773…4a03backed No | 67c | 55,655$37,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,366.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3752backed Yes | 33c | 55,655$18,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,366.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…92f4backed No | 67c | 55,014$36,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,154.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…d224backed Yes | 33c | 55,014$18,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,154.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked No | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +46%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 66c | 689.17$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.21 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 62c | 546.44$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.29 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 33c | 482.47$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 67c | 479.97$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 33c | 307.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 32c | 306.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…53afbacked Yes | 36c | 277.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 34c | 235.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 65c | 205.71$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed No | 65c | 162.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7901…5575backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 42c | 145.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…5207backed Yes | 36c | 140.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 67c | 129.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 63c | 127.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 65c | 122.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 16c | 112.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Yes | 42c | 107.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 67c | 103.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…6cb8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 33c | 95.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 95.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed No | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 32c | 69.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8145…3155backed No | 69c | 63.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945f…c89bbacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…d1c2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…b08ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1e…9c7bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…0c77backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 79c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…3402backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…7e3bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…175dbacked No | 67c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?this page
- Will Achraf Hakimi score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?Yes won
- Will Bradley Barcola score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Désiré Doué score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?Yes won
- Will Federico Dimarco score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Goncalo Ramos score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?Yes won
- Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Marcus Thuram score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Marko Arnautović score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
- Will Nuno Mendes score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.