World Politics · resolved market
South Korean Dem Party leader arrested by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc835500bd64bff77ed89d071b9fa5830746b584f4a9700f6714c36b10a17ae95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 47,345$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.57 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 17,477$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.05 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7f87backed Yes | 2c | 8,020$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,403$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 5c | 4,200$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.68 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…2484backed Yes | 2c | 4,166$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 3,503$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 3,259$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +307.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…9955backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…a84dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,743$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e4…7cefbacked Yes | 3c | 2,304$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…3ad9backed Yes | 1c | 2,201$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,678$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 7c | 1,628$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,544$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 9c | 1,427$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 14c | 1,386$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…c49fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,323$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…877fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,322$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…3ffdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,313$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 6c | 1,276$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 9c | 1,245$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd6…a140backed Yes | 7c | 1,241$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 3c | 1,216$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 9c | 1,130$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,128$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 6c | 1,105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f8…c072backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…c3eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…1b5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,024$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…179abacked Yes | 2c | 944.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 911.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed Yes | 3c | 811.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 726.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 2c | 658.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 4c | 654.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 4c | 495$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 11c | 401.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…7fcbbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed Yes | 6c | 383.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed Yes | 9c | 330$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 11c | 304.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…2f11backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…f468backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…d609backed Yes | 9c | 184.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 6c | 172.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…eae6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ebfbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8b…e4b6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf4…8469backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…ff8abacked No | 74c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434b…b944backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.