Movies · resolved market
Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef3989beb0306a80365e2a9c5290629a74605f6f0659cd7f0a3b4842bf41516e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87ef…dc01backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 20c | 3,192$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.83 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 12c | 1,531$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 68c | 1,458$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 77c | 1,346$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.44 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…5025backed Yes | 16c | 1,319$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 30c | 998.54$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.32 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 896.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 79c | 867.23$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 2c | 700.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 636$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.28 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 22c | 549.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 78c | 377.25$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 5c | 351.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 24c | 285$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 18c | 227.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 225.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…c5b3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 38c | 109.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 53.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.