Movies · resolved market
Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b983af0d3bb4339f809efb01439cf825331c02522c2c70c1b53f13ea4a5432d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 31c | 6,508$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.47 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 33c | 6,223$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.63 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 66c | 3,782$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.26 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 71c | 3,222$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 32c | 2,510$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 42c | 2,209$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.72 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…439bbacked Yes | 66c | 2,034$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,941$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.07 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 1,349$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.16 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 35c | 1,272$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.28 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…70a9backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…04c0backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…2f78backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…a1cabacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 31c | 981.67$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked No | 53c | 950.87$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 40c | 898$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 39c | 875$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.6 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 41c | 864.62$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.7 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 70c | 859.53$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 46c | 832.82$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.87 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 48c | 793.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…16d3backed No | 33c | 755$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 49c | 746.17$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 73c | 683.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 72c | 668.22$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 57c | 650.85$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.95 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 30c | 603$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 56c | 599.99$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 531.71$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2f…e8f9backed Yes | 66c | 490$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…9478backed No | 34c | 490$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 47c | 482.31$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.9 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 445$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…b251backed No | 33c | 445$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…60a3backed Yes | 70c | 441.17$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 26c | 405$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 31c | 385$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…1817backed Yes | 67c | 375$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 27c | 368$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 35c | 331.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 26c | 330$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 49c | 309.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…6c3dbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…6503backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…822bbacked No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bed…dc1fbacked No | 33c | 295$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…5bb2backed Yes | 52c | 292$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…b0c1backed Yes | 67c | 280$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…1fd3backed Yes | 66c | 280$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…d8b5backed Yes | 67c | 280$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8054…2780backed No | 33c | 280$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…1c9fbacked No | 33c | 280$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7337…0722backed No | 35c | 280$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…f343backed Yes | 65c | 280$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…c2cabacked Yes | 67c | 275$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…14aebacked Yes | 67c | 275$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…1787backed Yes | 67c | 275$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…38dcbacked Yes | 67c | 275$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71b…805ebacked No | 33c | 275$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…fc14backed No | 33c | 275$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…37d1backed No | 35c | 270$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…8b55backed No | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…f0fdbacked Yes | 65c | 270$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…63f1backed Yes | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298a…e635backed Yes | 67c | 260$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 43c | 260$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…a41fbacked No | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954c…6e6bbacked Yes | 67c | 260$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…6334backed No | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…222ebacked Yes | 67c | 255$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9664…bc63backed Yes | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…4406backed Yes | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…2907backed No | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc719…a2aebacked No | 34c | 245$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…d1a1backed Yes | 66c | 245$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 65c | 244.32$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb4…cce3backed No | 35c | 242$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f4f5backed Yes | 65c | 242$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…3df8backed No | 35c | 235$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…4e9cbacked Yes | 65c | 235$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e49…25c5backed Yes | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…1232backed No | 33c | 230$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e5c9backed No | 35c | 230$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 72c | 221.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…6378backed No | 34c | 220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9e…c5f6backed Yes | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…b105backed Yes | 67c | 210$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…5beabacked No | 33c | 210$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 38c | 205.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd11…6ea1backed Yes | 59c | 202.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070b…9356backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…394cbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…909cbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 65c | 199.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3451backed No | 33c | 180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…b4f7backed No | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.