Movies · resolved market
Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x018e52bb9120d5cb7293d48d17a40c6b3cc10e32a1592832f5538051aaa4582c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 7c | 7,018$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,146$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 13c | 1,337$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.07 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,200$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 867.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 9c | 710.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 15c | 517.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 505$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 7c | 499.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…439bbacked Yes | 11c | 444.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…3f1abacked Yes | 12c | 438.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 21c | 407$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 79c | 376.95$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 7c | 351$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 8c | 328.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked Yes | 8c | 305$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…f088backed Yes | 19c | 258.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…5864backed Yes | 7c | 235.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…3ab2backed Yes | 6c | 203.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…f21dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 184$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 176$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed Yes | 13c | 160.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 7c | 157.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…5296backed Yes | 12c | 85.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.