Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b273fca8fb6b95ffa407e69a18f266802cd09e809665aa5044bc44c7d01799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 69c | 17,457$12,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,421.63 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 28c | 11,290$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 27c | 7,200$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.26 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 75c | 6,009$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 77c | 5,146$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.86 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 72c | 3,980$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.73 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 21c | 3,208$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.23 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed No | 30c | 2,669$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 53c | 2,561$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 9c | 2,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 30c | 2,354$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.56 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 31c | 2,169$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.79 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 30c | 2,054$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.55 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 40c | 1,899$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,848$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 33c | 1,840$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 34c | 1,800$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 15c | 1,797$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 11c | 1,743$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 12c | 1,658$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 20c | 1,658$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 30c | 1,628$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 1,420$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…4f16backed Yes | 78c | 1,378$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 1,331$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.71 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 33c | 1,130$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.86 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…ecbdbacked Yes | 56c | 1,030$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…34c1backed No | 44c | 1,030$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6217…a07fbacked No | 44c | 1,030$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…8739backed Yes | 56c | 1,030$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…9d9bbacked No | 18c | 999.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 20c | 946.83$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.41 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 31c | 928.11$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.45 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 16c | 883.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 28c | 800$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked No | 18c | 738.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 49c | 709.57$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.43 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 28c | 658$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 28c | 627$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 65c | 618.31$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…7941backed No | 32c | 497.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…3ddfbacked No | 35c | 483.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed No | 13c | 470$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 65c | 381.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…4ad4backed Yes | 74c | 380$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ad…9c6cbacked No | 26c | 380$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 30c | 369.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 66c | 365.25$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…b881backed Yes | 72c | 330$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…453dbacked Yes | 72c | 330$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…cf73backed No | 28c | 330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…1fbbbacked No | 28c | 330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd4…040bbacked No | 21c | 314.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…c17ebacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…9b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked No | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked No | 12c | 280.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked Yes | 77c | 273.66$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed No | 31c | 260$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 11c | 257.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…7a9ebacked No | 26c | 230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…7379backed Yes | 74c | 230$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 49c | 226.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…e322backed No | 28c | 203.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…a43fbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…c616backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 19c | 190$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed No | 28c | 183$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb9…462abacked Yes | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…9edfbacked Yes | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…909cbacked No | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e32…e77abacked No | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 38c | 174.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4d92backed No | 17c | 172.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…64e9backed No | 32c | 166$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 66c | 165.88$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Yes | 66c | 151.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…ec60backed No | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…5d9fbacked Yes | 74c | 145$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…ed48backed No | 45c | 142.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…8740backed Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…f5efbacked No | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 22c | 128.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 26c | 124.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856a…f81bbacked No | 34c | 123$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 37c | 120.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe47…871fbacked No | 30c | 115$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…f196backed Yes | 71c | 113.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 67c | 113.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…7e36backed Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 107.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…c1b4backed Yes | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 62c | 100.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 80c | 100.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.