Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d28ab88753aef173543b5aebb2ec15389d931b827fcf97d15cf56b02d5b7d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 3,392$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.26 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 38c | 2,836$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.15 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 64c | 2,243$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.09 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 26c | 1,500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 54c | 1,377$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.73 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 43c | 1,365$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 64c | 1,348$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 36c | 1,306$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 42c | 1,175$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.44 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 55c | 1,071$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 38c | 1,009$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.99 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 61c | 936.62$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.24 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 50c | 910$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.66 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Yes | 63c | 798$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 37c | 769.98$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.49 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 39c | 739.03$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 60c | 664.32$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.4 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 58c | 556.28$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.87 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…a7afbacked No | 44c | 445$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 34c | 429.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.14 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 62c | 425.15$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.19 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 46c | 411.63$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed No | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…0eccbacked No | 44c | 365$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1779…635bbacked Yes | 56c | 365$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 38c | 359.71$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43e…142cbacked No | 44c | 350$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…0e9bbacked Yes | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8671…3402backed No | 44c | 335$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…db0dbacked Yes | 56c | 335$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec02…6f98backed No | 44c | 330$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…c0a6backed Yes | 56c | 330$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…480cbacked Yes | 56c | 325$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…4af6backed No | 44c | 325$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca58…93aabacked Yes | 56c | 320$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…a164backed No | 43c | 315$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…2a5ebacked No | 44c | 315$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e59fbacked Yes | 56c | 315$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…40efbacked Yes | 57c | 315$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 65c | 309.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 39c | 298$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…a2cfbacked Yes | 57c | 290$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf3…51d0backed No | 43c | 290$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 54c | 273$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c3…a410backed Yes | 56c | 255$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…e835backed Yes | 56c | 220$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…4749backed No | 42c | 220$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…543abacked Yes | 58c | 220$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5402…b042backed No | 44c | 220$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c9…46cdbacked No | 43c | 215$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…13e2backed Yes | 56c | 215$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…4e05backed No | 44c | 215$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…a2dfbacked Yes | 57c | 215$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 66c | 213$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 211$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.7 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Yes | 68c | 210.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…4adcbacked Yes | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf63…e9d4backed No | 44c | 210$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 49c | 205.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e67…b771backed No | 44c | 205$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed Yes | 51c | 200.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…041ebacked No | 42c | 195$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…8599backed Yes | 58c | 195$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 52c | 186.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…c461backed Yes | 56c | 185$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…e6e6backed No | 44c | 185$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…bd1dbacked Yes | 54c | 183.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…5088backed No | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…bf70backed Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…be60backed No | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…7458backed Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bd…6df1backed No | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad1…f929backed Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…0b4bbacked No | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52af…a0e2backed Yes | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…dc01backed Yes | 65c | 179.02$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 65c | 178.87$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 20c | 174.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…8ccdbacked Yes | 75c | 172.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…3b53backed No | 44c | 170$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d9…7c7abacked No | 44c | 170$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…2554backed Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…28bfbacked No | 44c | 170$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…02febacked No | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…265cbacked Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085c…6ce8backed Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…7d2bbacked Yes | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…13b6backed No | 44c | 166$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…26c0backed Yes | 56c | 166$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe637…7c01backed No | 42c | 165$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…21d9backed Yes | 58c | 165$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 163.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4b…b6d1backed Yes | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…ab7cbacked No | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…8729backed No | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…ee03backed Yes | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.