Movies · resolved market
Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c27f7a946e994abe62e26b724fba9a50118b458902b4db794a6717756c5ef9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 10c | 5,142$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.53 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 78c | 4,113$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.28 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 28c | 2,199$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 9c | 1,549$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 19c | 1,538$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.18 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 77c | 1,420$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 13c | 1,382$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 35c | 1,020$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4d92backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 26c | 899.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 18c | 754.18$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 78c | 752.25$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 26c | 747.06$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 11c | 511.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 20c | 447$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 64c | 437.12$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 5c | 424$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 50c | 421$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 38c | 416.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 36c | 366$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 56c | 354.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 27c | 340$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 275.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 63c | 268.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…c5b3backed No | 10c | 226.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 33c | 223.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 191.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed No | 25c | 190.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 34c | 180.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…f196backed No | 28c | 144.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb12…df3abacked Yes | 76c | 130.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…662dbacked Yes | 65c | 129$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes | 74c | 127.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…1679backed No | 27c | 124$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1564…1959backed No | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9b…5ee1backed Yes | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…5d2fbacked Yes | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 71c | 112.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…f5b4backed Yes | 75c | 109.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Yes | 59c | 108.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…d0e8backed Yes | 63c | 107$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked No | 18c | 106.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…a835backed Yes | 60c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5840…3e0cbacked Yes | 76c | 104.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…0d99backed Yes | 62c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…bc2abacked Yes | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…e050backed Yes | 62c | 91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 39c | 83.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…3347backed No | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…3340backed Yes | 74c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9257…1f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 80.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…3b28backed Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…7318backed No | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…e27bbacked No | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…b0acbacked No | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d76…7b7cbacked No | 43c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…4db1backed No | 43c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…53fbbacked No | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…0a11backed Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…c9d6backed No | 39c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…13ffbacked No | 41c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76e…845fbacked Yes | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…d3a0backed No | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…1660backed No | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…ed81backed No | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…abc9backed No | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…0b0ebacked Yes | 65c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…2fefbacked Yes | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…1812backed No | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…868dbacked Yes | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f9…d4f2backed Yes | 66c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ec…f097backed No | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…995ebacked No | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…9e93backed No | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…bd1dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…4f25backed Yes | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…f571backed Yes | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…2100backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…721ebacked No | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…4a57backed Yes | 51c | 58.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…116cbacked Yes | 73c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…8c9fbacked Yes | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7057backed Yes | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…ecdcbacked Yes | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…34b1backed No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856a…f81bbacked No | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…b205backed No | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…2edabacked Yes | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…ac8dbacked No | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…7c1fbacked Yes | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ce…1c4cbacked No | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 57c | 52.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…c669backed Yes | 60c | 51.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafa…b3cfbacked No | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked Yes | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.