TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,789 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x766f…9e74backed No75c3,416$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.33063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9349…c75bbacked Yes44c2,190$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No80c1,952$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.1213150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes25c1,946$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.91729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No59c1,765$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.818334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes20c1,752$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.994017.5%7 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No78c1,100$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24132639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397f…c0edbacked Yes24c900$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked No71c567$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.131723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No71c524$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7723751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…35e7backed No74c480$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes25c464.28$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0712539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No69c410$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.772010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48d6…6f73backed Yes26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes23c396.95$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.066320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe2e…1e4abacked No80c390$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No79c370$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5529926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…563ebacked Yes27c340$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6104…6e56backed No73c340$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No69c308$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.038836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…8337backed No56c267$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0021…1b5abacked Yes20c260$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes29c259.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No56c228.78$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.666541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes21c223.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.922119%4 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes29c220$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.490%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed No71c210.74$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes29c209.75$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.263225%8 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.121428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…7708backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No76c185.97$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.342556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b85…8065backed Yes26c180$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c179.77$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc627…cf40backed No80c166$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b8…0a11backed Yes20c166$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe771…a1e3backed No73c162$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes18c153.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.551421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3832…7044backed No69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.08837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e0…7e63backed Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…ff4cbacked No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes13c142$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.461533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe415…92e7backed Yes20c140$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b0…0ad8backed No80c140$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7692…c0a4backed Yes20c140$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e32…e77abacked No80c140$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes16c135.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.85411.1%6 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf1…ba41backed No80c135$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b5…49f3backed Yes20c135$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4610…b7a1backed Yes20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0c…86cdbacked Yes20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x316b…51a2backed Yes26c129$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aaf…c6ffbacked Yes16c124.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb6…18a2backed Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309a…3777backed No80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…2130backed No80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…86bdbacked Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2fa…514abacked Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6e…7ff6backed No74c115$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x575b…11b2backed No74c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7929…3ca5backed Yes26c110$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ff…17acbacked No74c104$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed Yes29c102.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2466…7c1fbacked Yes27c101$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc89…b106backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7a…c66ebacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f98…ef5ebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3187033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6286…eca2backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae3d…cc4fbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe412…4d5cbacked Yes33c97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae6…ff31backed No80c96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf46…b9a3backed Yes20c96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fef…5d2fbacked No69c96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes32c95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid+49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69dc…da8fbacked No72c95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb4…e050backed Yes27c94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f9…d4f2backed No71c92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Yes19c90.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.322437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc04…db4dbacked No80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd2…72f6backed No73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d15…5beabacked Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x804d…98ccbacked Yes28c89.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x579a…342ebacked Yes28c88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No74c88$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0965…7fd4backed No69c87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b21…735fbacked Yes29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63fe…eb01backed Yes20c86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5740…8ef1backed Yes26c86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479b…beffbacked No80c86$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b9…7d7cbacked Yes28c85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No69c83.02$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.741872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+78.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa35c…931cbacked Yes27c83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed8…1679backed No74c82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b8…948dbacked Yes29c82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d6…c7a4backed Yes27c81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c7…dec6backed No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+206.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a08…f8b0backed Yes20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.