Movies · resolved market
Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eca1798b9cff1867ec876a014e181c8b2d725d3616e04c2f846e659e467b02c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x766f…9e74backed No | 75c | 3,416$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…c75bbacked Yes | 44c | 2,190$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 80c | 1,952$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.12 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 25c | 1,946$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 59c | 1,765$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.81 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,752$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 78c | 1,100$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…c0edbacked Yes | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 71c | 567$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 524$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…35e7backed No | 74c | 480$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 25c | 464.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 69c | 410$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…6f73backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 396.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2e…1e4abacked No | 80c | 390$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 370$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…563ebacked Yes | 27c | 340$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…6e56backed No | 73c | 340$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 308$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…8337backed No | 56c | 267$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…1b5abacked Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 29c | 259.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 56c | 228.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 21c | 223.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 71c | 210.74$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 29c | 209.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…7708backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 76c | 185.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…8065backed Yes | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 179.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…cf40backed No | 80c | 166$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…0a11backed Yes | 20c | 166$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe771…a1e3backed No | 73c | 162$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 18c | 153.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…7e63backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…ff4cbacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 13c | 142$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…92e7backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b0…0ad8backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7692…c0a4backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e32…e77abacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 135.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…ba41backed No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b5…49f3backed Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…b7a1backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…86cdbacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…51a2backed Yes | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…c6ffbacked Yes | 16c | 124.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb6…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309a…3777backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…2130backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…86bdbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…514abacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6e…7ff6backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…11b2backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…3ca5backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…17acbacked No | 74c | 104$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 29c | 102.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…7c1fbacked Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc89…b106backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7a…c66ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f98…ef5ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…eca2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…cc4fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4d5cbacked Yes | 33c | 97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae6…ff31backed No | 80c | 96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…b9a3backed Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…5d2fbacked No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…da8fbacked No | 72c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…e050backed Yes | 27c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f9…d4f2backed No | 71c | 92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 19c | 90.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…db4dbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…72f6backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…5beabacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 28c | 89.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…342ebacked Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 74c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…7fd4backed No | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…735fbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fe…eb01backed Yes | 20c | 86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…8ef1backed Yes | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…beffbacked No | 80c | 86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…7d7cbacked Yes | 28c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 69c | 83.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…931cbacked Yes | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…1679backed No | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…948dbacked Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…c7a4backed Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…dec6backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a08…f8b0backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?this page
- Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Blitz' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
- Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Seed of the Sacred Fig' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?No won
- Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.