TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elon apologize to Trump before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,035 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8d3…69f9backed No77c11,948$9,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,188.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed No0c10,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes22c7,598$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,952.7137844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes26c7,054$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,232.929549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No73c2,499$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.6917850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes18c2,478$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.918036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22d…ea45backed No76c2,390$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes51c1,770$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.621172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes15c1,486$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.977740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No76c1,302$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.7915124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes22c1,214$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.773941%16 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes26c1,187$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.4518033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes20c1,148$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.1214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc542…231bbacked No5c1,066$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes79c1,046$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.24542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No74c1,028$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.5214241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No80c1,025$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8186833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed No75c1,000$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.244940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7308134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c1,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78069634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No76c820$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.53253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed Yes24c757.76$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.81811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes25c700$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.9328320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107723.4%18 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3609958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c489$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.3216725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No21c476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9611121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No21c476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9611120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes16c400$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3362133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca2…ca68backed No72c373$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes59c370.11$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.33164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes26c351.54$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.035616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes14c299.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.971844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd883…4fd7backed No80c299.74$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c295.33$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.161,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes27c294.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.486119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No77c280$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes24c260$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.64257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked No76c258.43$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.331050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes27c258.32$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.7237740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No71c258.09$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2516144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f62…d7b0backed No79c253.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No76c250$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.623543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.512643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8049…b09dbacked Yes19c246.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.542634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed No75c227.64$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.45955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac8…2a9dbacked No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2418445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0716…f036backed Yes15c193.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No75c181.45$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.312736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes25c176$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.763938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+102.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes18c162.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1855618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked No76c152$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed No73c149.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes37c147$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.373336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83d…8a0cbacked No72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked No75c135.53$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.652634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No70c130.28$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.24438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c129$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No73c128.96$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes26c128.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9212545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes19c119.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8318322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No76c113$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.882429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes22c102.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes17c100.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.032937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8096319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f64…32b3backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…0299backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick57cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…64c1backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9915227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No74c99.63$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.058169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5634…3582backed Yes17c88.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.241957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed No72c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.62653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed No78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.63066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab7…8613backed No72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa779…0aacbacked No76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee45…3bb1backed No72c52.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406634.8%23 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa719…0d97backed No71c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No68c48.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.947447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d93…1cffbacked Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+59.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x112d…86b2backed No72c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed No77c33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.311471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed No78c32.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc440…2e0ebacked No72c31.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232766.7%18 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a6…8e49backed No78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4962…700ebacked No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes77c24.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa378…1927backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3936…819abacked No70c18.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked No69c15.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.