Movies · resolved market
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d78ea3f13935f9af8c62486a6430387f8e892f05d224fcd34523d098737623b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 37c | 1,110$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 581.77$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 43c | 565.95$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.41 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…b39ebacked No | 32c | 495.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 53c | 492.85$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 63c | 450$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 53c | 321$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 67c | 298.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 48c | 276$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 68c | 270$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 38c | 256.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 53c | 248.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 55c | 245.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 48c | 227.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 64c | 225$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 61c | 207$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 40c | 178$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 63c | 159.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…2340backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 52c | 111.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…fe11backed Yes | 68c | 108$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b8…005abacked No | 36c | 106$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 104.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…93aabacked Yes | 62c | 81.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee6…eb9bbacked Yes | 64c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ef…de92backed Yes | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 44c | 49.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 43c | 45.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…8fd5backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…7babbacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de7…5924backed No | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 59c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 63c | 15.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?this page
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Emilia Pérez"?No won
- Will Marianne Jean-Baptiste win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Hard Truths"?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.