Movies · resolved market
Will Marianne Jean-Baptiste win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Hard Truths"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3506be71069b0aa9cbb77969ddecc4c21d6e6d51e003d776b1e6c15afa304a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 962.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.18 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 628.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 78c | 480$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 25c | 290$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 29c | 248.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 27c | 225$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 15c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 24c | 181$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…3beabacked Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 67c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marianne Jean-Baptiste win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Hard Truths"?this page
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?No won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Emilia Pérez"?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.