TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jaguars vs. Broncos

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Jaguars, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,800,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,946,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,800,826 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x090a…01b4backed Jaguars37c86,112$31,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,250.5616836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Broncos53c80,311$42,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,386.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Jaguars48c60,036$28,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,343.781936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Broncos63c58,905$36,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,816.7453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars66c55,450$36,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,973.9875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Broncos40c52,094$20,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,665.767255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Broncos13c45,655$5,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,777.8423244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Jaguars50c43,160$21,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,557.0416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos63c40,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,20016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Broncos12c23,849$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.131543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Broncos16c20,511$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.6568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Broncos63c20,142$12,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,689.746645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Jaguars38c20,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,4003767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Broncos61c20,000$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,2001741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Broncos48c19,013$9,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,108.3330043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Jaguars43c18,000$7,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2603548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Broncos62c16,907$10,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,482.1811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Broncos62c16,291$10,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,100.739359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Jaguars39c15,000$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,149.7835848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Broncos62c14,406$8,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,905.236149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Broncos55c14,352$7,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,905666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fa…f554backed Broncos53c14,013$7,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,462.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Jaguars37c14,000$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,819.9619645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Broncos55c13,764$7,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,587.46837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Broncos41c13,451$5,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,580.3650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Jaguars46c13,014$5,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,027.583560%21 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Broncos63c11,027$6,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,928.8847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Jaguars59c10,606$6,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,348.334362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc1c…9b59backed Broncos56c9,067$5,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,077.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars58c8,884$5,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,727.9428447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Jaguars37c8,819$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,570.6914951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Broncos59c8,747$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,200.085356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Jaguars37c8,719$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,492.9213142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Jaguars37c8,500$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,355366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c51…087cbacked Broncos63c8,500$5,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,354.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars37c8,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,04083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9df…249ebacked Jaguars45c8,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Jaguars37c7,793$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,909.5919152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Jaguars55c7,749$4,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.116254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef45…1905backed Broncos70c7,073$4,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,966.58922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick56cpaid-64.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Broncos4c6,733$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.5920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0870…cd87backed Broncos62c6,432$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,987.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Broncos8c6,036$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+91.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Jaguars51c6,020$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,941.426250%31 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…b70fbacked Jaguars39c5,794$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,534.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Jaguars37c5,781$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.792330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…dd2fbacked Broncos22c5,360$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.62240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Broncos12c5,333$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.3419235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Broncos46c5,057$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.3727348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Jaguars37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Jaguars40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Broncos62c5,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10016226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52f…df5dbacked Broncos60c4,594$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.152755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Jaguars37c4,500$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,83526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Jaguars66c4,450$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.9427644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jaguars37c4,324$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,724.1237350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Jaguars58c4,310$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.3414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Broncos62c4,218$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.1731854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e8…06b5backed Jaguars39c4,152$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,532.724100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Jaguars53c4,148$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.9223850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Jaguars43c4,143$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.27737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Broncos63c4,127$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6006965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9707…a0ffbacked Broncos61c4,090$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,494.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Jaguars57c4,000$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Broncos63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5202948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Jaguars35c4,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.994330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Jaguars59c3,986$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.591650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Jaguars38c3,947$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.372821.4%6 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos63c3,792$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.671,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Jaguars38c3,684$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.2112152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…5b1cbacked Broncos63c3,627$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…3961backed Jaguars37c3,616$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Broncos63c3,598$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.5511750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jaguars37c3,454$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.7626650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Broncos55c3,248$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.4514258.5%83 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Jaguars67c3,227$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.9420755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cec…1a24backed Jaguars40c3,217$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.17683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Jaguars51c3,208$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.631056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Jaguars36c3,200$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.9919651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked Broncos25c3,032$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.671942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f90…163cbacked Jaguars55c3,030$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Broncos62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86039447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Jaguars38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8601361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…f9bbbacked Jaguars39c2,896$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ef…6e04backed Broncos61c2,872$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce51…cb8fbacked Broncos61c2,859$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d9…ca67backed Jaguars38c2,800$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7443548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Broncos54c2,765$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.455736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe11e…1bc0backed Jaguars39c2,699$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa264…05c8backed Jaguars39c2,697$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d26…be09backed Jaguars38c2,632$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x766c…f6cabacked Broncos61c2,630$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Broncos51c2,621$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.612548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed Broncos53c2,600$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3775223.1%12 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa058…9fc0backed Broncos61c2,517$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Broncos52c2,497$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.4419543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ce…bf0bbacked Jaguars39c2,443$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+114.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Broncos0c2,440$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd4…7ed5backed Jaguars39c2,418$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.