NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64792c1eed2da7c115be733204c55becc339f1bfbb9853f6f0d31e19b313556c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa970…eac1backed Over | 62c | 2,178$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52af…7f00backed Under | 38c | 2,177$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…e7b3backed Over | 62c | 2,120$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…3968backed Under | 38c | 2,120$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…cdeebacked Over | 62c | 2,030$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…9830backed Under | 38c | 2,024$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…ea0fbacked Under | 38c | 1,795$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2f…acbdbacked Over | 62c | 1,792$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…5149backed Under | 38c | 1,724$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94a…02dbbacked Over | 62c | 1,721$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 39c | 348.87$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 61c | 323$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Over | 59c | 84.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 40c | 54.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 61c | 25.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5this page
- Jaguars vs. BroncosJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.