NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1451987d8e5a480689b6f2c6bd33d47e597bd5b813f4c3aafc0561fb02c8195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Broncos, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Broncos | 59c | 2,548$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…e313backed Broncos | 56c | 2,537$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…2e6abacked Jaguars | 44c | 2,524$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…ced4backed Jaguars | 44c | 2,260$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…c48bbacked Broncos | 56c | 2,257$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 41c | 2,220$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…fd47backed Jaguars | 44c | 2,103$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a33…adf3backed Broncos | 56c | 2,092$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…9545backed Jaguars | 44c | 2,043$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…72cdbacked Broncos | 56c | 2,030$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Broncos | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Broncos | 57c | 1,949$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.17 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e55…6046backed Broncos | 56c | 1,860$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8754…46abbacked Jaguars | 44c | 1,846$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Jaguars | 43c | 1,795$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.35 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Broncos | 58c | 678.9$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.43 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Jaguars | 42c | 595$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jaguars | 42c | 399.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.71 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Jaguars | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jaguars | 55c | 340.33$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Broncos | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars | 42c | 229.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.04 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Broncos | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Broncos | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Jaguars | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Broncos | 58c | 197.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Broncos | 58c | 171.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…c194backed Broncos | 58c | 141.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Jaguars | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Jaguars | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jaguars | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Broncos | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Jaguars | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Broncos | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Broncos | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 41c | 78.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jaguars | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Jaguars | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jaguars | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012c…478ebacked Broncos | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…23c6backed Broncos | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Broncos | 58c | 33.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…fba2backed Broncos | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)this page
- Jaguars vs. BroncosJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.