TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Broncos, Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$416,742
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$490,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,742 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos48c103,847$49,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,844.4486547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jaguars52c77,333$40,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,271.2816860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Jaguars52c45,606$23,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,890.823767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos49c40,000$19,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,40016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Broncos48c32,818$15,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,752.8217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Broncos48c28,889$13,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,866.796764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d26…be09backed Jaguars52c20,192$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,692.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Jaguars52c19,231$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,230.771968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Jaguars51c16,643$8,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,154.9824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jaguars51c11,396$5,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,584.1226650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Jaguars51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9007464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Jaguars51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.9724053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos49c8,890$4,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,356.128447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jaguars52c8,654$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,153.8525744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Jaguars52c7,500$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Jaguars52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8801361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Jaguars52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.2310648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Jaguars52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.2318140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Jaguars50c5,583$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.6720661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Broncos49c5,169$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5331145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Jaguars52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Broncos49c4,784$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.2653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaceb…6f8ebacked Broncos51c3,950$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Broncos48c3,769$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.1775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jaguars51c2,963$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.7147348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797a…770cbacked Jaguars53c2,537$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c28…5298backed Broncos47c2,532$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8535…6b49backed Jaguars53c2,515$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Broncos49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22514641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Jaguars52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2006759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa69d…f3abbacked Broncos47c2,497$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars52c2,424$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.2859453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Jaguars51c2,410$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.7522450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d5…1b40backed Broncos47c2,321$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc92…4412backed Jaguars53c2,318$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef19…c4d4backed Jaguars53c2,147$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd915…4ffbbacked Broncos47c2,124$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Broncos49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98011154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Broncos49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9804628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec8c…6927backed Broncos47c1,971$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88df…b546backed Jaguars53c1,930$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Broncos48c1,881$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.8821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Broncos49c1,757$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8613740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Broncos34c1,753$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.811637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Broncos48c1,735$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.826649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Broncos48c1,619$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.2865048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Broncos45c1,555$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7008540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Broncos49c1,531$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75012550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Broncos48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.997530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Jaguars69c1,290$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9768446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Jaguars50c1,245$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.7218435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a47…fcf3backed Jaguars52c1,150$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5522748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Jaguars52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48013641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Jaguars52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48015555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Broncos49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010142.6%43 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Broncos47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars51c985.06$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.211,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Jaguars52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5413145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed78…f62bbacked Broncos49c852.39$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4152343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Jaguars51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3922540%10 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Jaguars52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.237052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Jaguars52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2316351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Jaguars16c750$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63011122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x44b8…f4c7backed Broncos49c717.88$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.762454.2%13 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Broncos49c699.99$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34318744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Jaguars52c636.54$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.545949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Broncos58c615.61$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.547545.3%34 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Jaguars51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29417251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars59c556.05$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.5573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd65…fcfabacked Broncos35c540.94$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.415832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Broncos50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010537.1%39 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb03c…7db3backed Jaguars52c482.15$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.431866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Jaguars51c474.82$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3519459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Jaguars52c452.1$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.913056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Jaguars51c450$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.53735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebc9…6786backed Jaguars52c423.08$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.081573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Broncos10c417.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Broncos50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Jaguars52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19211759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Broncos49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19612445.2%56 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Jaguars51c384.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6517656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars52c345$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Jaguars62c331.61$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4135648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Jaguars52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14420650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Jaguars54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13813448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Jaguars10c300$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick5cpaid+221.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Jaguars49c300$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1524944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Broncos49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14713935.3%49 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Broncos50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508956.2%50 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc034…3ff7backed Broncos49c299.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.961435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Jaguars52c275$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1329651%49 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Broncos49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x069c…3d49backed Broncos49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6252…bcf4backed Broncos49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Jaguars52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0812backed Broncos48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963831.6%12 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Jaguars15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170549.3%5 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Broncos50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020632%66 W · 140 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Jaguars52c199.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9914355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.