NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0989edac6200c2d9ab09502ceeaba600c58e5e36f819af347d68cc22051bb08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 9,346$4,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,047.06 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 48c | 8,055$3,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,193.82 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 8,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,840$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.18 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.6 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,459$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.82 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 1,406$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.31 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 1,083$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 47c | 924.5$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.98 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 53c | 300$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 209$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 46c | 188.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Under | 54c | 167.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Under | 54c | 32.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Over | 48c | 28.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5this page
- Jaguars vs. BroncosJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.