TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,208,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,227,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,208,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 970 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans6c317,016$17,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,805.131,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans22c236,558$52,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,042.681,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pelicans21c158,347$33,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,411.9887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs79c122,479$96,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,004.212,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Spurs78c112,402$87,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,728.4314434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Pelicans21c79,777$16,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,753.173043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Spurs78c70,027$54,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,363.4523245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Pelicans22c70,000$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,399.963551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pelicans22c60,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,999.9235235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs79c48,101$38,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,084.612,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs66c40,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,499.9938248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs57c34,832$19,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,841.2334062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans20c33,472$6,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,601.544,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pelicans6c20,217$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.541,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Spurs78c20,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pelicans21c20,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.9831445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pelicans22c19,291$4,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.581,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans21c18,127$3,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,805.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Spurs79c17,000$13,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,56016749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb736…7d61backed Pelicans2c16,530$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Spurs79c15,787$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.5344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Pelicans21c14,900$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,058.9247028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Spurs78c13,200$10,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9047468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Spurs78c13,000$10,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8606352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Spurs79c12,658$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.232580%20 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans27c11,766$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.075,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Pelicans20c11,300$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.8727424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pelicans23c10,821$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.831,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Spurs78c10,344$8,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.631,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Spurs80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0008361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Pelicans1c10,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.273748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…0059backed Pelicans21c9,760$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans0c9,235$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.698820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Spurs78c8,713$6,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.8669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pelicans13c8,304$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.7981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans40c8,279$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.692,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb560…60d6backed Spurs78c8,042$6,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.235736.8%21 W · 36 L-8.0wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans22c7,875$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.782,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Pelicans20c7,608$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.5674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…fb60backed Spurs79c7,366$5,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.795379.2%42 W · 11 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pelicans2c6,898$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.941,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x314c…24b5backed Pelicans5c6,634$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.03260%0 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Pelicans21c6,557$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.711,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans21c6,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.964,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Spurs78c6,374$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.0876746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Pelicans36c6,280$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.0314243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Pelicans18c6,215$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.9721723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans1c6,199$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.751,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadab…aecdbacked Spurs78c6,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Spurs78c5,732$4,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.0513455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Spurs79c5,625$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.3215855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc954…d3a2backed Spurs79c5,468$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs78c5,287$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.451,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa72c…a633backed Spurs77c5,220$4,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.919953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Spurs79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0505369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Pelicans21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05036741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Pelicans22c5,000$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.9710041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Spurs78c4,966$3,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.5216053.1%85 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans16c4,947$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Pelicans11c4,942$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53021923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Pelicans20c4,936$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.1446928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans16c4,518$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.933,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Spurs79c4,406$3,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.52,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans19c4,405$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.111,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Spurs78c4,399$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.7735651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcc…c02dbacked Spurs79c4,318$3,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Spurs78c4,276$3,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.7225845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Pelicans12c4,266$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49517147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs79c4,152$3,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.3676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Spurs74c4,079$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.8616943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Pelicans15c4,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Spurs79c4,000$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Pelicans21c3,769$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.4913248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Spurs79c3,578$2,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.3327758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa250…ca0fbacked Pelicans19c3,537$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Spurs79c3,515$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.162652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…2e89backed Spurs75c3,500$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.992429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Spurs79c3,473$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.3348347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pelicans21c3,472$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6248944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Spurs78c3,444$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.6844648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Spurs76c3,400$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83238046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Spurs79c3,310$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.0422542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs79c3,294$2,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.153,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Pelicans25c3,280$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.3250838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Spurs78c3,194$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.871,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Pelicans22c3,108$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.7692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Pelicans17c3,076$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52017331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Spurs79c3,056$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.657957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Pelicans0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07f…c3bcbacked Pelicans22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pelicans3c2,997$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.917211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Spurs79c2,582$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.2748957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Pelicans31c2,567$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Spurs79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.657745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x957e…5758backed Pelicans7c2,516$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703941%16 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Pelicans4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8222…8b4ebacked Spurs79c2,499$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.714468.2%30 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x188f…c19dbacked Spurs79c2,462$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.981070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs63c2,453$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.6173649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.