NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1857ed4e7d2f6192d11d4e07950ddcd43c4838a80eb988538fe03cef2d70e496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 49c | 564.07$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Spurs | 51c | 294.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Spurs | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Spurs | 80c | 196.07$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Pelicans | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Spurs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Spurs | 51c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Pelicans | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Spurs | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Spurs | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Spurs | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pelicans | 49c | 54.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Spurs | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…4064backed Spurs | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Pelicans | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Pelicans | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Spurs | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Spurs | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Pelicans | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Spurs | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Spurs vs. PelicansSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.