NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908d4569fe23708af1a29faa290d36fac759b481636b6354b22d3ee0781921c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 47c | 63,708$30,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,666.71 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 12,169$6,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,321.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 10,463$5,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,231.68 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 54c | 2,283$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.04 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 57c | 1,747$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 53c | 1,565$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.83 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 54c | 1,456$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.24 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 960$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 933.33$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 647.45$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.11 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 51c | 645.1$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 517$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 498.25$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.05 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 54c | 389$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 52c | 384.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Under | 52c | 383.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 311.7$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 279.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 54c | 218.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…9422backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 230 | 43%99 W · 131 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 187.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 57c | 176.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 46c | 168$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…c744backed Under | 55c | 127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…a465backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…5abfbacked Over | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…1043backed Over | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c2…3066backed Under | 54c | 39.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 53c | 38.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Spurs vs. PelicansSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.