World Politics · resolved market
Canada backs out of F-35 deal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7197c890873f77fd3042d982681b9b7b79388d7597e0c3f37a5bf752134561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,885$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 26c | 1,526$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 69c | 1,453$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.57 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 66c | 829.26$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 79c | 813$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.91 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 71c | 684.4$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 70c | 517.6$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…439bbacked Yes | 20c | 504.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 33c | 499.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 14c | 463.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…8d89backed No | 70c | 428.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…c159backed Yes | 5c | 411.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…846bbacked No | 80c | 391.4$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 367.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 322.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed Yes | 21c | 320.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…7652backed Yes | 16c | 299.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…9664backed Yes | 19c | 266.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 254.9$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 241.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 224.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 64c | 205.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 192.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 38c | 177.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 35c | 157$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 8c | 148.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 133.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 73c | 129.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…f646backed No | 65c | 114.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 75c | 108.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 38c | 96.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…e126backed Yes | 32c | 93.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…797cbacked Yes | 15c | 86.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…8928backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked No | 68c | 50.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 49.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…fdb1backed No | 75c | 40.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…7ed1backed Yes | 49c | 32.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…744dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…281ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d4…3e93backed No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.