NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4d940d713047489e615ec6631cadba915c7fa2aab27e7376b076e83a5737a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Capitals, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $492,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 445 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Capitals | 33c | 90,000$29,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,400 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Penguins | 57c | 63,460$36,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,284.97 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Penguins | 50c | 37,308$18,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,658.3 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Capitals | 50c | 36,726$18,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,360.8 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Penguins | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Capitals | 51c | 22,856$11,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,604.67 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd735…968ebacked Penguins | 49c | 20,409$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,413.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Capitals | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Penguins | 50c | 18,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Capitals | 49c | 17,058$8,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,405.41 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…f152backed Penguins | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Capitals | 50c | 10,613$5,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,304.56 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Capitals | 49c | 10,149$4,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,972.84 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Capitals | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Capitals | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Penguins | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Capitals | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Capitals | 12c | 7,576$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.9 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd0…8e1ebacked Capitals | 50c | 6,972$3,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,486 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Capitals | 50c | 6,600$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,328 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…1390backed Capitals | 50c | 6,493$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penguins | 78c | 6,004$4,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.39 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Capitals | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Penguins | 50c | 5,939$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,978.92 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…99d9backed Capitals | 50c | 5,692$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…3b5bbacked Capitals | 50c | 5,427$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…65d6backed Capitals | 50c | 5,371$2,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Capitals | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Penguins | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.98 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Capitals | 50c | 5,000$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.3 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…b159backed Penguins | 50c | 4,819$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Capitals | 12c | 4,615$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.55 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Penguins | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Penguins | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Penguins | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Capitals | 30c | 3,478$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Penguins | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 427 | 51.1%218 W · 209 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Penguins | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…1c7ebacked Penguins | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe69d…344cbacked Penguins | 50c | 2,940$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Penguins | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.68 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Capitals | 51c | 2,839$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.51 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Capitals | 50c | 2,527$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.62 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…2973backed Penguins | 50c | 2,520$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…a1d6backed Penguins | 50c | 2,516$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…718bbacked Penguins | 50c | 2,487$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…9566backed Penguins | 50c | 2,410$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…4c70backed Penguins | 50c | 2,371$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Penguins | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a3…3dbfbacked Penguins | 50c | 2,153$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…9426backed Penguins | 50c | 2,060$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Capitals | 51c | 2,053$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.98 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…a22abacked Penguins | 50c | 2,023$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Capitals | 50c | 2,020$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Penguins | 50c | 2,020$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Penguins | 54c | 2,015$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.98 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Penguins | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Capitals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Penguins | 50c | 1,998$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Capitals | 50c | 1,823$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.61 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…c6c3backed Capitals | 50c | 1,669$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b4…a95bbacked Penguins | 50c | 1,664$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Capitals | 10c | 1,623$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Penguins | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.97 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Penguins | 54c | 1,559$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.35 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals | 50c | 1,500$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.5 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…2e08backed Penguins | 52c | 1,340$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Capitals | 49c | 1,337$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.06 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Capitals | 50c | 1,303$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.07 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Penguins | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 50c | 1,292$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Penguins | 61c | 1,267$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.09 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Capitals | 48c | 1,250$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.5 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd548…e622backed Penguins | 49c | 1,213$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0a…7bc7backed Capitals | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked Penguins | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d4…8713backed Capitals | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…36f2backed Penguins | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Penguins | 50c | 1,199$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Penguins | 50c | 1,179$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.91 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Penguins | 50c | 1,122$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins | 48c | 1,007$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.47 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Penguins | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Penguins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Penguins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Penguins | 50c | 999.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Penguins | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…9c0fbacked Capitals | 51c | 999.91$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Capitals | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…ed62backed Capitals | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Capitals | 50c | 951$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.5 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Capitals | 51c | 853.73$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.21 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Capitals | 57c | 786.38$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -10.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Capitals | 52c | 761$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.15 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Penguins | 50c | 668$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…b542backed Penguins | 50c | 656$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Penguins | 63c | 639$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.2 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Penguins | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Capitals | 33c | 507.58$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Penguins | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Penguinsthis page
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.