NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b000fa11d689e8c53753fa1efa133ee5ef7afc88842b5ac5c0eec907829caa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Capitals, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d81…56b1backed Capitals | 29c | 1,967$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…9c58backed Penguins | 71c | 1,021$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…a159backed Capitals | 29c | 879$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d42…c873backed Penguins | 71c | 725$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Penguins | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Capitals | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Capitals | 32c | 445.59$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…9076backed Capitals | 29c | 440$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penguins | 68c | 438.2$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…493abacked Capitals | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…de47backed Capitals | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…1cabbacked Penguins | 71c | 349$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…5ea6backed Penguins | 71c | 341$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…e0bfbacked Penguins | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abb…f7e4backed Penguins | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8571…61fabacked Penguins | 71c | 221$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d9…e7cebacked Penguins | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…7de9backed Penguins | 71c | 189$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Capitals | 33c | 182.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5a…ee3cbacked Penguins | 71c | 180$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Penguins | 67c | 169.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…3be5backed Penguins | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…a8c8backed Penguins | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Penguins | 72c | 83.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Capitals | 28c | 69.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Penguins | 72c | 57.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Penguins | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Capitals | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Penguins | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…520cbacked Penguins | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.