TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,232,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,232,889 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked No17c147,239$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0003636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No15c63,174$9,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,700.763,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No2c52,318$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.4540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+181.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No15c38,529$5,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,779.44341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No15c37,309$5,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,729.859831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No10c32,252$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,337.973132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No15c28,367$4,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2554524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd09…05b2backed No15c23,989$3,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,548.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No15c18,876$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.744740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf032…ad8cbacked No15c16,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No15c15,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked No16c15,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No15c13,493$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.93721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f4e…5104backed Yes79c12,574$9,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.23580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+121.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No18c12,140$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+44.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c51…087cbacked No16c10,669$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No8c10,008$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.7776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No18c7,821$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.7153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No1c6,092$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.282213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed No15c6,066$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.921855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No15c6,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.975923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No16c5,900$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b7c…3c87backed No17c5,833$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.97944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No16c4,168$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.7262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.993438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No19c2,686$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.651,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…f569backed No16c2,331$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed No15c2,270$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No16c2,050$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3287111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9d3…22d1backed No16c1,807$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1e…49d9backed No16c1,580$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked No20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No16c999.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No13c864.83$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.136227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No11c802.06$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3981732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No16c673.21$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11130647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No20c608.1$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6218644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9bb…4066backed Yes79c604.82$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked No17c588.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.041030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed No15c582.86$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No14c580$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.22948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed No15c499.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No16c482.59$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…0a8dbacked No15c419.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Yes80c402.41$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.413876.3%29 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No14c310$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…720fbacked Yes80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No15c298.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3216045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No17c294.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6839857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed No16c289.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed No16c267.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.816343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Yes79c253.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.147100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfef0…7708backed Yes79c252.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6aa…8882backed No20c244.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.997219.4%14 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed No16c212.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1714734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6522221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa71c…e905backed No16c198.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No16c188$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0815160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe055…637abacked Yes80c186$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes78c179.14$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.411030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed No16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No20c150.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0620548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed No12c149.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.433339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No17c148.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.261233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes78c147.15$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked No10c143.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.339838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No15c140.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7319446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf885…48f2backed No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No16c130$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f2…65dcbacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251250%6 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x981b…b8eabacked No16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208846.6%41 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea99…f13ebacked No15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257958.2%46 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed No16c119.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked No15c110.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Yes80c107.66$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.531861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d4…125ebacked Yes80c105.19$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.041250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No16c104.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7920153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…c102backed Yes79c101.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.344100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc56d…c484backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+84.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2821450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57de…20cbbacked Yes80c98.74$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.75366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes80c97.5$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed No20c96.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.351346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x763a…49a9backed No15c83.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked No20c81.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.277450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…2e40backed Yes80c76.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3612…cf99backed No20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…032abacked Yes79c69.62$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d40…4737backed Yes78c63.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…4be1backed Yes80c62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc8…7309backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Yes80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57545.3%34 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…9af5backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31729.4%5 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.36per pick65cpaid-49.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.