Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a199f953becd295553bae54790314dd350cc3e3a02d404603f48e6dbaa776e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 6c | 33,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 13,252$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…dfe0backed Yes | 5c | 10,625$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 5,454$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.94 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Yes | 6c | 5,210$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f12…1937backed Yes | 6c | 5,105$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 5c | 3,795$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…eee2backed Yes | 5c | 3,390$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,287$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 7c | 2,944$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…05b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,448$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 2,239$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 7c | 1,517$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Yes | 1c | 1,490$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 5c | 1,260$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 5c | 1,197$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 4c | 660.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes | 5c | 619.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…379ebacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +74%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…5286backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Yes | 5c | 494.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 420.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Yes | 5c | 399.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 397.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 7c | 362$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +83%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…3cf9backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Yes | 7c | 280.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 5c | 204.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0f71backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…81adbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…501fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 6c | 192.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.